U.S. shoppers showed up strong for the holiday kickoff, but it's the surprising shifts in what they're buying that could spark unexpected stock moves this month.
If early numbers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday hold up, a handful of e‑commerce names may have plenty of upside in December — driven by shifting habits, rising interest in new retail categories, and a surge in AI‑powered shopping.
Why This Holiday Season Matters
U.S. online sales during the 2025 Black Friday weekend reached record levels, with total online spending over Cyber Week hitting about $44.2 billion, up 7.7% from last year.
Online sales for Thanksgiving and Black Friday clocked in at about $18 billion. That is roughly double the $9 billion seen during October Big Deal Days. Cyber Monday alone is expected to generate $14.2 billion in sales.
That is an increase of 6.3% year over year. Mobile represented a massive 53% of Black Friday sales.
For the full November shopping window, Adobe measured $123 billion in online spending, up 7.2% year over year.
In a Tuesday note to clients, Bank of America Research analyst Michael McGovern highlighted two standout categories winning the early holiday E-Commerce battle.
He said "specific categories seem particularly strong, including Home Goods and Pet Care."
Black Friday Winners: Home Goods And Pet Care Stocks
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ: SHOP) president Harley Finkelstein highlighted that last year, consumers focused on “getting outside.”
He said this year seems to be on “items for the Home is the winner.”
Bank of America’s McGovern thinks this is a positive sign for Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W), which has already surged more than 120 percent this year. The investment bank has a $130 target, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.
The Pet Care sector is also booming. Salesforce noted “continued demand for pet health care.” Millennials and Gen Z are entering new life stages and driving this demand.
McGovern says this trend helps Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY). While the stock is flat for the year, Bank of America sees a 12-month price target of $46, about 38% above current prices.
AI Chatbots Quietly Push Shoppers To Buy
Adobe Analytics reported AI-driven traffic to US retail sites jumped 805% year over year. Desktop represented 74% of that traffic, while mobile made up the remaining 26%.
Salesforce said about $3 billion of Black Friday's $18 billion in online spending was influenced by Agentic AI, equal to roughly 17% of the day's total.
Finkelstein also said AI-driven shopping on Shopify is up about six times year over year. Consumers mostly used AI tools for price checks and shipping comparisons.
"Strong growth in AI-based shopping could be positive for Etsy Inc. (NYSE: ETSY)" McGovern said.
Adobe highlighted that shoppers who arrived through large language models were 38% more likely to complete a purchase than other traffic sources.
McGovern also flagged Etsy's daily active users, which accelerated 19 percentage points in November to 32% growth, according to Sensor Tower.
Etsy shares are up only 2.5% this year. Bank of America maintains a $73 target, 35% above current prices.
Last but not least, the investment bank believes strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending also supports eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY). Its target sits at $100, or about 22% above current levels.