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Stock futures are little changed ahead of key inflation data: Live updates

CNBC•December 04, 2025 at 11:30 PM•Full Content
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Gist

Markets are poised for potential volatility as traders await key inflation data that could influence the Fed's next interest rate decision.

LLM Summary

Stock futures are flat ahead of critical U.S. inflation data, with investors closely watching the PCE report and labor market trends for clues on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Mixed economic signals, including job cuts and low unemployment claims, have fueled speculation of a rate cut, now priced at an 87% probability. After-hours trading saw mixed results, with Ulta Beauty rising on strong earnings and SoFi falling on a stock offering.

Full Article Content

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 02, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Stock futures are little changed Thursday night as traders await inflation data that could further inform the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3 points, or 0.01%. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both slightly above the flatline.

In the previous session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed slightly higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day just below the flatline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed its eighth positive session in nine, buoyed by a 3.4% gain in Meta shares and a 2.1% gain in Nvidia.

Traders are keeping a close eye on a variety of economic data points, as the November payrolls report is scheduled to come out after the Fed's Dec. 10 meeting.

Investors earlier digested a report from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that showed job cuts in November moved ahead of 1 million for the year, with corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence and tariffs contributing to the losses. Thursday's release of the latest weekly jobless claims numbers — which showed new applications for unemployment insurance at their lowest level since Sept. 2022 — did not appear to dent sentiment during the trading session.

Investors are hoping that signs of a softening labor market will influence the Fed to lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting. Traders are pricing in an 87% chance of a cut next Wednesday, far higher than just a couple weeks ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"The data is mixed that we're getting, and you're seeing different signals. Inflation is still sticky where it is," Sonali Basak, iCapital chief investment strategist, said Thursday on CNBC's "Closing Bell." "2026 is a wild card as it pertains to inflation. No one has that crystal ball. And you have that with the labor market that has generally held up 'low hire-low fire.' If that tips over, then you're in a pretty sticky spot next year."

The market will be able to sort through a fresh slate of economic releases on Friday. The Commerce Department will release delayed September data on consumer spending and incomes as well as the personal consumption expenditures index, also considered the Fed's primary inflation gauge. The PCE report will be the first one since the record-setting U.S. government shutdown. The University of Michigan will also release its consumer survey for December on Friday.

Stocks are managing to eke out slight gains this week. The S&P 500 is up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and 30-stock Dow have added nearly 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

10 Min Ago

Ulta Beauty, HPE, SoFi among stocks moving in extended trading Thursday

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Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading.

* Ulta Beauty — Shares of the beauty retailer rose nearly 6% after outpacing Wall Street's expectations for the fiscal third quarter and raising its forecasts for the full fiscal year. Ulta expects revenue for the year to be $12.3 billion, up from a prior range of $12 billion to $12.1 billion and higher than the consensus estimate of $12.13 billion. Same-store sales growth for the year will be between 4.4% to 4.7%, up from an earlier estimate of 2.5% to 3.5%.

* Hewlett Packard Enterprise — The cloud services company missed Wall Street's fourth-quarter revenue expectations, leading shares to drop about 8% in the after-hours session. Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported revenue of $9.68 billion for the period, falling short of the $9.94 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Earnings for the quarter beat expectations.

* SoFi Technologies — The fintech company's stock moved more than 5% lower after SoFi announced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of shares of its common stock.

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh

24 Min Ago

U.S. stock futures open little changed

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Shortly after 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered above the flatline while Nasdaq-100 futures gained nearly 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose marginally.

— Pia Singh