As the holiday season approaches, investors are making lists and checking them twice. December is always a good time to review your portfolio and cut out any laggards for tax-loss harvesting.
This year, investors have been mostly rewarded for staying the course, but not every large-cap stock has had a prosperous 2025.
Today, we'll look at five stocks you may want to consider dropping (or avoiding) before the calendar flips to 2026.
Let’s take a look.
Target Inc.
It's been a rough 2025 for Target (NYSE: TGT), which is one of the few retailers consistently missing expectations despite resilient consumer spending. Both the fundamental and technical picture look putrid for TGT, and there appears to be no bottom in sight for the beleaguered retailer. Despite trading at just 11 times earnings and 0.39 times sales, the company is floundering amidst terrible earnings and margin pressures. In its fiscal Q3 2026 report, Target noted comp sales were down 2.7% and management lowered full-year 2025 EPS guidance to just $7 to $8 per share. Following the November 19th conference call, the stock received 11 price reductions from analysts versus only two price target boosts. Walmart has emerged as the clear choice for value-conscious consumers this year, and their respective stocks reflect this shift.
The chart doesn't show an optimistic near-term future, either. The stock has consistently trended downward since the market began turning over in February, and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has flipped from a support line to a resistance level. Shares don't even get a boost when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips into Oversold territory, which is usually a tell-tale signal for bullish buyers and algo trading. The holiday season isn't looking very merry for Target this year.
Deere and Co.
Few large-cap stocks have been hit harder by Trump's trade war than Deere and Co. (NYSE: DE), the $130 billion market cap farm equipment firm that sells tractors, harvesters, planters, and other smaller precision machinery. Despite beating both revenue and EPS estimates in its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings release, the company provided very muted guidance due to an expected 2026 tariff headwind of more than $1.2 billion before taxes. Coupled with the farming crisis brewing in the American Midwest, Deere faces several sales headwinds entering 2026.
The stock has attempted to rally over the last six weeks, but momentum appears to be already drying up. Following the Death Cross earlier, the 200-day SMA has acted as a strong area of resistance, keeping the share price below the gap-down level from the company's fiscal Q3 2025 earnings release in August. Another canary in the coalmine is the MACD, which is
Tesla Inc.
It's always risky betting against Elon Musk's cult of personality, but the volatile automaker's stock is once again being volatile, and this time several fundamental risks are acting as flies in the ointment. First (as always), it's the valuation. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) currently trades at more than 300 times earnings, 15 times sales, and over 200 times free cash flow. Vehicle sales continue to crater in Europe, and BYD is right on its heels in China. In the United States, the expiration of the EV tax credit and lower emission standards are also headwinds for the automotive business. The company is increasingly relying on AI advances to buoy its stock, but headwinds exist there as well, as Google's Waymo is far ahead of the RoboTaxi, and the AI chatbot Grok remains a distant competitor to ChatGPT and Gemini.
The chart shows that TSLA shares could be crashing into a new resistance level at the 50-day SMA. The stock hadn't made a meaningful dip below this level since April, but now that a potential double-top has formed, investors are looking for signs of weakening momentum. If shares fail to break through the 50-day SMA or the double top, the next move is likely to be to the downside.
United Parcel Service Inc.
UPS (NYSE: UPS) might look attractive on valuation grounds, but the $80 billion shipping giant is falling behind rival FedEx. Tariff policy has hurt all shipping and delivery companies, but the removal of the de minimis exception has created a logistical headache that UPS has been forced to devote serious resources to untangle. Dependence on Amazon is another headwind; volume from the e-commerce king was down over 21% in Q3, and the company offered tepid guidance despite a top- and bottom-line earnings beat.
The stock attempted to break out in October, but was swiftly met with resistance along the 200-day SMA. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs continue to consolidate; however, the continual rejection at this level puts more pressure on buyers. Other technical signals point to the downside as well. The RSI is approaching Overbought status despite the stock failing to break above resistance, and the MACD shows that bullish momentum is at its weakest point since August. Multiple technical headwinds are usually bad news for a stock already down 20% year-to-date (YTD), and that's before factoring in any macroeconomic pressures.
Vistra Corp.
Energy stocks have received a big boost from the data center gold rush, but returns are beginning to diminish, and the once-vibrant Vistra (NYSE: VST) is looking sluggish and suspect. The company reported a stark earnings miss for Q3 2025 on November 6th, missing revenue projections by more than 23%. Volatile natural gas prices will likely weigh on Vistra's bottom line as the winter proceeds, and the stock now trades at 60 times earnings, 3.3 times sales, and 18 times book value.
Additionally, VST boasts one of the uglier charts you're likely to see amongst large-cap energy companies right now. A trio of technical headwinds is currently showing, including a dip below the 50-day SMA and a bearish MACD crossover. The RSI has also been trending downward since September, hinting that momentum is fading faster than the share price in VST. A plunge below the 200-day SMA would likely create a strong downward pull on the share price, so keep an eye on this key area over the next few trading sessions.