Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is heading into next week's investor day under pressure to prove its earnings slowdown has finally bottomed, with investors eyeing fresh 2026 guidance and signs that heavy Pro-focused spending and margin drag are poised to turn.
JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers laid out expectations from the upcoming Investor Conference in New York on December 12.
Details
The analyst views the upcoming event as a potential turning point for the stock, signaling an end to the multi-year flat or declining earnings revision cycle and setting the stage for renewed optimism.
Looking ahead, the analyst expects modest improvement in underlying industry demand in 2026, supported by historically low EHS growth, current mortgage rates, incremental replacement demand, and slight inflationary pressure.
Horvers says that the company may guide below Street expectations of 2% comps, with ~1% aligning with their market-clearing view, translating to $14.75–$15.00 in EPS versus the Street's $15.51.
The analyst estimates 2.2% U.S. SSS and $15.46 EPS, factoring in a 3% leverage point, 11 cents EPS accretion from GMS, and a 10-bp operating margin headwind.
Beyond 2026, Horvers expects the company to maintain its 2023 AD framework: 3%–4% top-line growth, stable gross margins, and margin expansion driving mid-high single-digit EPS growth.
While some suggest raising projections due to Pro investments and recent acquisitions, the analyst sees this as unnecessary amid consumer, rates, and tariff uncertainties.