Costco Wholesale Corporation | COST
Bullish
8.1% Sales Growth in November
Costco reported $23.64B in net sales for the four weeks ending November 30, 2025—a strong 8.1% year-over-year increase. Comparable sales rose 6.9%, and digital sales surged 16.6%, indicating robust demand across both physical and e-commerce channels. Year-to-date growth in 12- and 13-week periods also showed 8.2% expansion, reinforcing consistent momentum.
Telsey Keeps Outperform Rating
Telsey Advisory Group maintains an Outperform rating and $1,100 price target, forecasting 7.3% comparable sales growth driven by rising traffic, higher average ticket size, and strong membership renewal rates. The firm’s continued confidence, despite a recent miss in core sales, reflects belief in Costco’s underlying strength and pricing power.
Digital Sales Up 16.6%
Digital sales grew 16.6% in the November period, far outpacing overall sales growth. This highlights Costco’s successful digital transformation and ability to capture online shoppers, a critical advantage in an evolving retail landscape. The strong e-commerce performance supports long-term scalability and margin resilience.
Top Holiday Retail Stock
Costco is highlighted as a top retail stock for the 2025 holiday season alongside Amazon and Ulta Beauty. Analysts cite its strong e-commerce platform, loyal customer base, and efficient supply chain as key differentiators. The company’s ability to drive Q4 sales amid macro uncertainty underscores its defensive positioning and competitive advantage.
Whales Betting on Price Rise
Whale activity in options markets shows strong bullish sentiment, with call volume significantly exceeding put volume. This indicates that large institutional investors are betting on a near-term price increase, projecting a range of $700–$1,100 over the next three months. This aligns with analyst consensus targets around $1,075, suggesting strong market conviction.
Costco Effect Boosts Local Economies
The 'Costco Effect' demonstrates the company’s positive macroeconomic impact—new stores raise local wages by up to 40% and boost surrounding businesses. This strengthens community loyalty, improves employee retention, and drives sustained foot traffic. These external benefits reinforce Costco’s long-term brand strength and economic moat.
Bearish
November Core Sales Miss Expectations
Costco's November U.S. core sales fell short of expectations, signaling potential weakness in holiday consumer spending. Despite a year-over-year net sales increase of 8.1% ($23.64B vs. $21.87B), the miss on core sales suggests underlying demand pressures, especially in a high-inflation environment. This divergence between total and core sales raises concerns about sustainability of growth momentum.
Stock Down 13.7% in 6 Months
Despite strong long-term performance, Costco's stock has declined 13.7% over the past six months, indicating a potential overvaluation or market correction. The stock is trading at a premium valuation relative to historical averages and peers, making it vulnerable to downward revisions if near-term results disappoint. This decline suggests that investor sentiment may be cooling despite positive fundamentals.
JPMorgan Cuts Price Target
Analyst sentiment is mixed: JPMorgan cut its price target to $1,025 while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting cautious optimism. The fact that a major firm is adjusting its target downward despite positive long-term trends suggests growing concerns about near-term execution or macro risks. This could signal a shift in institutional confidence.
Tariff Lawsuit Faces Legal Obstacles
Costco’s lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump-era tariffs may face significant hurdles. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, has confirmed that the administration can sustain tariffs under the 1962 Trade Act regardless of Supreme Court rulings. This undermines Costco’s legal argument and suggests that the refund claim is unlikely to succeed, potentially exposing the company to continued tariff costs.
Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Costco Wholesale Stock In The Last 10 Years
Costco November Sales Fall Short, But Trends Overall Consistent: Analyst
Scott Bessent Says Trump's 'Exact Tariff Structure' To Continue 'Permanently' Regardless Of Supreme Court Decision
Costco Wholesale Reports Net Sales Of $23.64B For The Retail Month Of November, The Four Weeks Ended November 30, 2025, An Increase Of 8.1% From $21.87B Last Year
Retail Shake-Up: Dollar Tree's Forecast Boost Shines Spotlight On Key ETFs
Costco Sues Trump Administration Over 'Unlawful' Tariffs, Seeks Full Refund
Costco Wholesale Q1 Preview: This Bullish Analyst Expects Solid Comp Growth
The Costco Effect Highlights How New Costco Stores Transform Local Economies: 'Surrounding Businesses Raise Wages Up To 40% More'
Overview for COST
Price chart and key metrics will appear here.